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It remains to be seen whether President Donald Trump and Elon Musk can patch things up after their ugly break-up this week – as many around them are hoping.

But as their feud devolved into highly personal attacks on Thursday, one of the most interesting facets was this: Musk leaned in on a potential power struggle.

He didn’t just criticize Trump or his agenda bill that Republicans are trying to enact; he talked about unseating Republicans who voted for that “disgusting abomination.” He mused about forming a third party. He suggested Trump needed him – claiming Trump would have lost in 2024 without his support. He repeatedly played up X posts suggesting people would have to choose between him and Trump – and sent a not-subtle warning to those who might choose wrongly.

“Oh and some food for thought as they ponder this question: Trump has 3.5 years left as President, but I will be around for 40+ years,” Musk wrote on his social media platform.

In other words: Make sure you think long and hard about what you do next, because you could live to regret it.

So assuming for the moment that this feud continues, who holds the cards?

There is no question that, if truly forced to choose, the vast majority of Republican powerbrokers would choose Trump. But it’s not quite so simple.

Vice President JD Vance, after hours of somewhat conspicuous silence Thursday, eventually came down firmly in Trump’s corner (in case there was any doubt) – albeit without criticizing Musk.

Other Trump allies who aren’t fond of Musk and his influence seemed to seize on the opportunity to try and excommunicate him – in Steve Bannon’s case, somewhat literally, as he suggested Trump should deport the South African-born Musk, who’s now a US citizen.

Musk — the wealthiest man in the world — is a relative newcomer to politics, having only really joined the conservative movement less than a year ago (after the assassination attempt against Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania).

Trump, by contrast, often seems to have an almost cult-like influence over his side of the political divide, transforming the GOP into one that’s much more about loyalty to him than any particular set of ideals or principles. The president often flip-flops – Musk on Thursday noted Trump was once a professed deficit hawk just like him – and the base often flips right alongside him. When Trump says something baseless or false (like that the 2020 election was stolen) much of his party internalizes it and rallies around it.

This is Trump’s party, full stop.

But when it comes to how much this feud could matter, it’s not quite as simple as who picks what side. Musk retains real influence, and that’s why we’re seeing many Republicans resist that binary choice.

A persistent rift with Musk would force Republicans to reckon with some uneasy dynamics.

Musk’s overall popularity has clearly taken a hit as the Department of Government Efficiency has fallen out of favor. And he’s definitely not as popular as Trump is on the right. Musk’s personal politics and tech-world background always made this a somewhat uneasy marriage with Trump, and the president’s agenda bill has unearthed some of those tensions.

But Musk has retained significant Republican support even as the DOGE effort has struggled. In fact, his stature eclipses most Republicans not named Trump or Vance.

An April Reuters/Ipsos poll, for instance, showed 54% of Republicans had a “very favorable” opinion of Trump, and 50% said the same of Trump’s vice president. But Musk wasn’t far behind, at 43%.

He was well ahead of other Trump administration figures like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (33%) and then-national security adviser Michael Waltz (18%).

Similarly, a more recent Marquette University Law School poll showed Musk’s “very favorable” number among all Americans (22%) coming up just shy of Trump (25%) and matching Vance. And that’s even after the polling decline of DOGE.

Musk’s DOGE work has also remained quite popular in GOP circles. An April New York Times/Siena College poll showed 63% of Republicans and 70% of Trump voters said they “strongly support” the cuts made by Musk and DOGE.

The flip side is that even if Republicans really like Musk – in numbers that aren’t that far from Trump’s own – that doesn’t mean their devotion to him is comparable. It’s possible to really like two people but clearly like one of them more.

And there have been signs that Republicans don’t necessarily want more of Musk.

Polling from Quinnipiac University in early April, for example, showed while 71% of Republicans said he had about the right amount of power to make decisions in the Trump administration, just 8% thought he had too little.

And all of this is before the rift with Trump. Toss on a few days or weeks of potential missives from the president, and it’s likely Musk’s numbers among Republicans would crater.

But that’s not the same as saying a rift between these two billionaires wouldn’t matter.

Musk not only has retained plenty of goodwill from Republicans of late, but he wields immense influence via his personal fortune and ownership of perhaps the preeminent social media platform for politics, X.

We’ve seen before that Musk can drive support for initiatives he likes and torpedo things he doesn’t. He has used his control of X’s moderation policies and algorithm to boost his own posts and at times silence his critics, as the Washington Post noted Thursday.

And he’s proven plenty willing and able to seed unsubstantiated theories about his political opponents, as he did Thursday with his posts linking Trump to Jeffrey Epstein.

Toss on top of that the wealth that Musk has proven increasingly willing to deploy on politics (i.e. potential primary challengers) and his promise to be a force for decades to come, and it’s not an easy call to disown him.

We’ll see if Musk and Trump intend to force that choice on the Republican Party.

• It remains to be seen: 아직 두고 볼 일이다, 어떻게 될지 알 수 없다
• patch things up: 관계를 회복하다
• lean in on: 적극적으로 개입하다, 한쪽으로 힘을 싣다
• power struggle: 권력 싸움
• muse about: ~에 대해 곰곰이 생각하다, 숙고하다
• Albeit: ~이긴 하지만, ~에도 불구하고
• Flip-flop: (의견이나 입장이) 자주 바뀌다
• Missives: (격식) 공식적인 편지나 메시지, (가끔은 공격적이거나 비판적인) 글이나 게시물
• wield influence: 영향력을 행사하다
• Rift: (사람들 사이의) 균열, 불화, 갈등
• force someone to reckon with: ~에 대해 직면하게 하다, 고려하도록 만들다
• toss on top of that: 게다가, 거기에 더해

도널드 트럼프 대통령과 일론 머스크가 이번 주 심각한 갈등 끝에 관계 회복을 시도할지 여부는 아직 미지수다. 이들의 주변 인사들은 관계가 회복되기를 바라고 있다.

그러나 두 사람의 충돌이 목요일에는 인신공격 수준으로 격화되면서, 이번 사태의 흥미로운 측면 중 하나가 드러났다. 머스크가 정치적 주도권 확보 가능성을 내비친 것이다.

머스크는 단순히 트럼프나 공화당의 정책을 비판하는 데 그치지 않았다. 그는 해당 법안에 찬성한 공화당 의원들을 교체해야 한다고 주장했고, 제3당 창당 가능성까지 언급했다. 트럼프가 자신의 지원 없이는 2024년 대선에서 패배했을 것이라고 주장하며, 트럼프가 자신을 필요로 한다는 메시지를 여러 차례 강조했다. 또 X(구 트위터)에서 사람들에게 자신과 트럼프 중 누구를 선택할지 고민해야 한다고 경고했다.

머스크는 X에 "생각할 거리를 하나 던지자면, 트럼프 대통령 임기는 앞으로 3.5년 남았지만 나는 앞으로 40년 넘게 영향력을 행사할 것"이라고 적었다.

즉, 앞으로 어떤 선택을 할지 충분히 고민하라는 경고다. 잘못된 선택은 오랫동안 후회할 수도 있다는 뜻이다.

그렇다면 만약 두 사람의 갈등이 지속된다면, 누가 주도권을 쥐고 있을까?

현재로선 공화당 내 유력 인사 대다수는 트럼프 편에 설 가능성이 높다. 하지만 상황은 그리 단순하지 않다.

목요일 비교적 침묵을 지키던 JD 밴스 부통령은 결국 트럼프 지지 입장을 명확히 했다. 다만 머스크를 직접 비판하진 않았다. 트럼프 측 다른 인사들은 머스크를 배척하려는 움직임을 보였다. 스티브 배넌은 아예 머스크를 추방해야 한다고 주장하기도 했다.

머스크는 세계 최고 부호이지만 정치권에 발을 들인지 채 1년도 되지 않았다. 반면 트럼프는 공화당 내에서 거의 종교적 추종을 받으며 당을 장악하고 있다. 트럼프가 어떤 입장을 취하든 지지층은 그대로 따라간다.

그렇다고 해서 이번 갈등이 단순한 진영 선택 문제로 귀결되는 것도 아니다. 머스크는 여전히 상당한 영향력을 갖고 있으며, 그렇기 때문에 많은 공화당 인사들이 양자택일 구도를 피하고 있다.

머스크에 대한 공화당 지지율은 다소 하락했지만 여전히 강력하다. 특히 그가 주도한 정부효율성부(DOGE) 프로젝트는 공화당 지지층에서 높은 지지를 받고 있다.

로이터/입소스 조사에 따르면 공화당원 54%가 트럼프를 매우 긍정적으로 평가했고, 머스크도 43%로 뒤를 이었다. 마켓대학 법대 조사에서는 머스크의 긍정 평가가 트럼프(25%)와 큰 차이가 나지 않았다.

다만, 공화당원들이 머스크에게 더 많은 권력을 원하느냐는 질문에는 8%만이 "그렇다"고 답했다. 이는 그들의 지지가 무조건적인 충성으로 이어지지는 않는다는 점을 보여준다.

하지만 이는 두 억만장자의 갈등이 정치적 파급력이 없다는 의미는 아니다. 머스크는 개인 재산과 X 플랫폼을 통해 상당한 영향력을 행사하고 있다. 그는 X 알고리즘을 활용해 자신의 입장을 강화하거나 비판자를 침묵시키는 데 적극적이다. 또한 정치적 경쟁자를 공격하는 근거 없는 주장도 서슴지 않고 퍼뜨리고 있다.

정치에 대한 그의 관심과 막대한 자금력을 고려할 때, 공화당 입장에서 머스크를 완전히 배제하기는 쉽지 않다.

머스크와 트럼프가 공화당에 양자택일을 강요할지 지켜볼 일이다.

Sweden's Maya Stahl on the beam during day one of the 2025 European Artistic Gymnastics Championships in Leipzig, Germany. Photo by Matthias Hangst

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